What direction will politics in Uttar Pradesh take after 2024 general elections?

The first two phases of Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh will not only indicate which way the wind will blow, but also send some significant political messages across the country, primarily because of the region’s social demography, dominated by three castes and communities – Muslims, Dalits and Jats; the region is also called UP’s ‘Jat land’.
The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have successfully conducted political experiments that led to Hindu ‘polarisation’ and Dalit empowerment.
Thus, besides political messaging, the results of the western region may also reset the political combinations and permutations. As of now, notwithstanding the angry voices of farmers in general (Rajputs and Tyagis, in particular) and the Muslim consolidation in favour of the opposition alliance, the BJP and I.N.D.I.A are locked in a fierce contest on several seats.
Eight of the 20 parliamentary seats in the region went to the polls on April 19, while voting for another eight and four seats will be cast on April 26 and May 7, respectively.
Is it the end of intense Hindu-Muslim politics?
After the 2013 communal riots in Muzaffarnagar, the region had turned into a communal lab of political parties that played sensitive issues such as migration and ‘love jihad’ to polarise Muslims and Hindus.
But the polarisation on communal lines was not intense on April 19 as mundane, local issues dominated the political narrative. The contest had largely narrowed down to two Jat leaders of BJP and Samajwadi Party (SP) – Sangeet Som and Harendra Mullick. BJP’s pride is at stake in Muzaffarnagar. The party’s ally, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Jayant Chaudhury, was told to campaign in the constituency amid speculation about a conspiracy to avenge the defeat of his late father Chaudhary Ajit Singh in 2019 by a few thousand votes.
Religion and its sway on voters
Meerut has often voted on communal lines after the 1987 Maliana riots, the wounds of which have not healed even now. The Hindu-Muslim sentiments often get aggravated during elections. While in 1991 the elections had to be countermanded due to violence, the BJP won six elections, barring 1999 and 2004 polls, when the seat was won by the BSP and the Congress, respectively.
The opposition generally fielded a Muslim candidate to get the support of the dominant community as their preference has been a candidate from their kind. In 2019, 2014 and 2009, either the SP or the BSP, or both, have fielded Muslim candidates. The two dominant communities here are Muslims and Dalits, followed by Jat, Brahmin and Vaishya.
However, in 2024, when the BJP dropped three-time winner Rajendra Agarwal for Arun Govil, the ‘Ram’ of silver screen, to keep the temple issue afresh, both the SP and the BSP have picked non-Muslim candidates.
Notwithstanding the flip-flop, Akhilesh fielded a strong Dalit woman, Sunita Verma, while the BSP has picked Devvrat Tyagi to check polarisation on communal lines.
Meerut will decide if religion will continue to majorly sway the voters in the elections.
Will candidates matter?
Generally, people vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and not the BJP candidate. Sometimes, the die-hard supporters of BJP don’t even remember the names of their candidates. What they know is Modi and the BJP symbol.
Pilibhit is a seat where the BJP high command decided to take the risk. Varun Gandhi, who along with his mother Maneka Gandhi had over a three-decade-long association with the constituency, was dropped. Little known cabinet minister in the Yogi government Jitin Prasada replaced him.
The BJP leadership campaigned extensively for their nominee who perhaps learnt his way through the unknown lanes and bylanes of Pilibhit amid fear of sabotage by angry supporters of Varun.
Significantly, Varun and his mother remained conspicuously absent from the dais during PM Modi’s visit to the region. The credit for Prasada’s victory will go to PM.
Is it the end of Azam Khan’s hold on Rampur?
The BJP had celebrated victory over Rampur in the 2022 by-polls as it was one of the last few SP bastions it wanted to demolish. Now with Azam Khan, his son Abdullah Azam and wife Tazeem Fatima in jail, the BJP is confident of retaining the seat amid confusion about SP candidate Mohibullah Nadvi, a cleric from Delhi. His name was announced after Akhilesh met Azam Khan in jail. But did Azam, whose association dates back to 1978 with the constituency, suggest his name? Or is the SP leadership coming out of his shadow?
Another Dalit leader in the making?
Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad is locked in a triangular contest in Nagina. His victory will jolt the BSP. Initially, speculations were rife that SP may give him a ticket but apparently it decided against it to keep the BSP leadership in humour. Chandrashekhar has been active in West UP.
RLD flip-flops, what next for the party?
Chaudhary Ajit Singh and his son Jayant have frequently changed poll partners, but Jats have remained loyal to them, primarily because they are their icon Charan Singh’s son and grandson. It is another matter that Ajit Singh and Jayant lost elections from their home constituency of Baghpat in 2014 and 2019, respectively. But after the announcement of Bharat Ratna for Charan Singh, Jats may support RLD despite the simmering discontent among farmers.
The party is contesting two seats in alliance with the BJP and the result will decide its future course of election.